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How do we determine threat levels?

There are a lot of misconceptions out there on how intelligence agencies do what they do.  It is not hard to see why this is: after all, spy services work in the shadows and seldom say anything publicly (“I can neither confirm nor deny…”).  On the contrary, if these organisations were open books then they […]

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A new government and national security

Canadians have overwhelmingly voted for change.  Mr. Harper is now a former prime minister and Mr. Trudeau is now prime minister elect. The new government will have a lot of challenges before it: the economy and income disparity; the environment; immigration and our role in the refugee crisis; First Nations; and many more. But what […]

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Elections and security: how safe are we?

As we near the end of a very long federal election campaign, I’d like to review what, if anything, has been said that touches on terrorism and national security  Spoiler alert: not much.  But a lot that has nothing to do with terrorism may actually have a significant impact on how safe we will be […]

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The verdict is in, and it is a good one

The VIA passenger train trial has been a tortuous one.  The two terrorists, Raed Jaser and Chiheb Esseghaier were found guilty on eight of nine charges back in March of this year.  The plot was disrupted two years previously: that is how long it takes terrorist cases to come to trial. Actually, this was very […]

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Suffer the young – part two

When we studied radicalisation to violence at CSIS in the 2000s, we found out that while anyone could engage in violent ideologies, the vast majority were young – ish.  The age range tended to be 18-28.  This is not to say that older, or on rare occasions younger, people did not get involved.  This finding […]

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Signs of the times – 2

It is comforting and yet humbling to see a news article that conveys information which confirms a lifetime’s work.  I studied radicalisation to violence, as inspired by Al Qaeda (and increasingly nowadays the Islamic State) for 15 years from a privileged position as a senior strategic analyst at CSIS.  I was able to leverage that […]

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The long arm of the terrorist law

When a terrorist act occurs there are a number of inevitable events that follow immediately afterwards.  The attackers are called “cowards” (while those who leave IEDs may be described so, can anyone really call a suicide bomber a coward?).  There is a usual demand for vengeance and retaliation. And the head of state promises that […]

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The psychology of terrorism

The field of psychology has taken quite a hit lately.  Since the true test of scientific veracity is replication (if I make a hypothesis about a phenomenon based on an experiment and no one can get the same results based on the same methodology the hypothesis is weak), a recent report that slightly more than […]

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Refugees and terrorism

The photo has already become iconic.  The picture of the little Kurdish boy lying face down in the water has touched the lives of tens of millions around the world.  It ranks up there with the girl running naked after a napalm strike in Vietnam and the vulture stalking a starving Ethiopian boy.  This photo […]

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The “knows” have it

In what seems likes eons ago,  former US Secretary of Defence Donald Rumsfeld once provided his take on what the US intelligence community knew about the terrorist threat during a news conference.  It is worth repeating here. “There are known knowns. These are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns. That is […]