One thing I have learned over three decades of working in intelligence and counter terrorism is that perspective matters. As an analyst one of the gravest sins you can commit is to give in to what is called “mirror imaging”, the erroneous belief that everyone thinks like you do. When you do that, you are […]
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Is freedom of speech untouchable?
I must confess that I am feeling a little frustrated with my US friends these days. There is a lot to admire in the US of A and that is why so many people want to move there. True, they have their problems, and they have Donald Trump, but don’t we all (except for Trump […]
In the ill-named “war on terror” small victories, let alone crushing ones, are hard to find. It seems that no matter how many terrorists we kill more rise up like the warriors that sprang from dragon’s teeth in Greek mythology and we see more attacks (one more today in Jerusalem). So it is little wonder […]
OK, I admit I am a little sensitive when it comes to the term “intelligence failure”. You would be too if the profession you devoted three decades to was constantly criticised in the media for screwing up. The failure to predict 9/11. The failure to predict India’s acquisition of a nuclear weapons capacity. The classic […]
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How much hate should we tolerate?
If you read the news in whatever format you prefer you cannot escape the reality that there are a lot of hateful people out there. Online (so-called Internet shaming), offline, it doesn’t matter. Some people just get off on spewing venom and trying to get a rise out of everyone else. We know of course […]
By now I am sure that you are aware of the fact that a referendum carried out by the Colombian government on a peace deal with the FARC was narrowly defeated. The difference between those in favour and those opposed was razor-thin, something like 50.2-49.8% In other words, the vote could have gone either way. […]
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Can terrorism be forgiven?
Imagine that you are the parent of Steven Sotloff, or Alan Henning, or Moaz al-Kasasbeh, all of whom were assassinated brutally by Islamic State. The first two were beheaded while the third, a Jordanian pilot, was burned alive. Your children were taken from you and died in some of the most horrific ways possible. Now […]
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The bullet or the ballot?
Rarely in life is there a stark choice between two polar opposites. On most occasions responses to a problem or an issue can be spread out along a range of options from soft to hard, easy to difficult, or popular to divisive. The ways in which we have elected to deal with violent radicalisation and […]
Wouldn’t it be great if the whole were always the sum of its parts? That way, if we could ensure that we have all the ingredients and understand how they go together we could reliably predict what the end state would be. If only life were like math: 2 + 3 + 4 = 9 […]
One thing that is obvious is that terrorists love social media. They are all over it and are masters at using it to their advantage. This should surprise no one. Terrorists tend to be two things: young and smart. Young smart people know how to get their message out and are adept at modifying what […]