Intelligence alliances are not the run-of-the-mill ventures. When it comes to sensitive information, be that signals (SIGINT), human (HUMINT) or imagery (IMINT), the sources and methods used dictate care in how and with whom this data is shared. If protocols and security guarantees are not in place this information can go missing, go where it should not go, or, in the worst case, end up with the targets against whom it was collected in the first place.
We in Canada are very fortunate in that since the end of WWII we have been part of what is known as the ‘5 eyes’ intelligence sharing club, quite simply the best example of a restricted ‘band of brothers’ the world has ever seen when it comes to secret data. The five constituent parts – Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the UK and the US – have been collaborating on a huge range of security and foreign intelligence priorities for nigh on 75 years. This arrangement – hiccups and all- has worked very well for all its members.
Alas, is it time to start thinking about its demise? Perhaps…
Not only did a senior US official muse about kicking Canada out of the 5 eyes (later denied, of course, but the damage had been done), but the President and his Vice have taken turns at insulting and demeaning other members – including the UK – to the point where I would be surprised if the four smaller partners are not seriously engaged in ‘what if’ scenarios (i.e. a US-less alliance).
The demolition of this club would have significant implications for all five nations – the US included. Shared intelligence has helped us all foil terrorist attacks, uncover foreign spy networks and advance our common global goals. It is odd that the current US government wants to put this agreement in danger: has it never heard the old adage ‘if it is not broken don’t fix it’ (or break it)?
With a Trump-led regime openly repeating Russian lines about Ukraine (Ukraine is an illegitimate dictatorship, Ukraine started the war, etc., etc.) it is not beyond the possibility that a further warming between Washington and Moscow could lead to the provision of highly sensitive intelligence to our longstanding adversary and enemy, Russian President Putin. Trump seems to be in thrall to the dictator and a ‘deal’ to give him intel on Ukraine’s military capabilities and positions is no longer the stuff of fantasy (um, by the way, Ukrainian President Zelensky was chosen in a free and fair election: “President” Putin, i.e. Vlad the dictator, not so much). That the President ended FBI investigations into Russian interference in US elections and is musing about allowing more Russian spies back to Washington does not exactly inspire confidence.
If this were to happen, it could be catastrophic to Ukraine. Not only does it rely on Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite system in the prosecution of its defence against Russian aggression and on the US for advanced military equipment, but were Moscow to receive intelligence from the US the advantage on the battlefield – so far a stalemate more or less for three years – would swing enormously in its favour.
For the 5 eyes, the decrease in trust in the US would also have serious implications. The other four members would think twice before sharing any of their independently-collected data on Russia and its designs on Ukraine, assuming it would not stay within the closed circle and would be solely to Moscow’s gain (after all, the fact that the US Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, is a Russian apologist, should send shivers down the spines of the other members of the alliance). The US, under a leader who has yet to find a slight he will not respond to like a spoiled child, would inevitably pull its own intel from the others, resulting in a universal diminution of preparedness for terrorist and foreign intelligence threats, as the Americans are by far the greatest single contributor to the club.
I write these words with a heavy heart as a former practitioner who spent more than three decades in SIGINT and HUMINT in Canada. All of us who toiled in the secret spy world have colleagues and friends – and even spouses! – within our partners and we all benefitted from our collaboration. I doubt that anyone within US intelligence agencies likes what the Trump Administration is doing, but with loyalist lackeys now in charge of all of them (CIA, FBI, ODNI…) there is little they can likely do to stop it.
Maybe saner heads will prevail and the US government will come to its senses and realise that the elephant in the room is NOT perfidious allies but Russia. When all is said and done I hold out hope the ‘eyes’ will carry the day.
