I never thought I would ever think along these lines but I find myself more and more casting a nostalgic glance at the Cold War. Yes, the era of MAD – mutually assured destruction – where the spectre of nuclear weapons exchanges could very well have meant the end of civilisation as we knew it. My career in intelligence began during that period in recent history and I recall the sense of urgency we all felt about keeping up on the intentions and capabilities of the enemy (i.e. the Soviet Union).
Fast forward four decades and the Cold War is a relic for many Canadians, something that happened ‘way back then’. The USSR is no more, and its ‘empire’, what was known as the Warsaw Pact and sundry Third World partners, exists only as a historical footnote. As a consequence, we should all feel safer, right?
Wrong!
In fact, the world, and more narrowly the West, is in a very dangerous phase. Russia under Putin looks an awful lot like the Soviet Union, undertaking efforts in Ukraine and elsewhere to spread its influence and control. China, which was an afterthought for the bulk of the post-WWI period, is bent as well on regional and international influence and control. Those who felt that trading with the PRC would make them more like us have been proven disastrously in error. North Korea is, well, North Korea, an unpredictable state. Throw in India, which seems to be playing both sides against each other, and Iran, and you have a potent, dangerous arena.
When it comes to terrorism, the same groups we have fought against for decades, i.e. jihadis, are still dominant around the world. The wars in Gaza and southern Lebanon are angering more and more people and likely helping these terrorist entities to recruit new members. The far right, which has had its lean decades, is now a little more worrisome and we must also keep an eye on left-wing extremists now increasingly willing to use violence.
In the face of all these threats – I have not even addressed the cyber angle and foreign interference (China, Russia, India, etc.) – what do we need to do? The answer is simple: we in the West need to go back to our fundamental values and act as one.
The West is defined primarily by liberal, secular democracies, capitalism, and a respect for human rights, everything Russia et al do not stand for. That is our strength and our salvation.
More concretely, here is what we, and more specifically Canada, should turn our attention to. The 5 eyes alliance, the planet’s best example of intelligence sharing and joint values, requires more funding and resources. And here, Canada is becoming an embarrassment. We are a net importer of data and have not done as well as we could have (this is a criticism of the government, not the constituent agencies: CSE, CSIS, etc).
On NATO the story is a similar one. Canada is a charter member of this organisation which has helped keep us safe for 75 years but has woefully underspent on defence, not getting close to the two per cent floor required for all countries (and the US and others have been calling us out on that). Yes, Turkey is an outlier under Erdogan, but NATO is still a vital piece of international security and defence.
Thirdly, the EU, albeit not a body that allows Canada to enter, is an important forum that also embodies Western values. It, together with NATO, can help promote those values worldwide and convince those nations sitting on the fence, or perhaps being courted by Russia and China (here I am thinking of much of Africa), that their future success and prosperity lies with us and not those guys.
The US presidential election and the ?upcoming? Canadian one will present our new leadership with both opportunities and challenges. If we work together at the bilateral, regional and multilateral levels we can show the rest of the world that not only will we defend ourselves from autocracies, dictatorships and terrorists but are keen to help others achieve the same systems we enjoy. The time to label threats what they are is past due: I hope our leaders are courageous enough to do so.
