Weekly thoughts: what role for the military in counter terrorism?
We have become all too used to the phrase ‘war on terrorism’ for more than two decades now, ever since then President George W. Bush said ‘our nation is at war’ in the aftermath of 9/11. And, since that time, we have seen not just the coalition invasion of Afghanistan – which ended a year ago with the withdrawal of the last US forces and a return to power by the same Taliban terrorists the invasion was supposed to neutralise – but others in Iraq, Yemen (by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates – UAE), and several places in Africa. As if terrorism had a ‘military’ solution (I suppose if we frame this as a ‘war’ whom else can we see as the main actors?).
Now, in addition to the US departure from Afghanistan we see the decision by France to leave Mali eight years after the initiation of Operation Barkhane, a 4,500 man anti-jihadi effort that was aimed not only on Mali but also on Burkina Faso, Niger, and Chad. The mission had its successes and failures but what needs to be the main takeaway is that none of these Sahel states were even close to dealing with Al Qaeda- (AQ) and Islamic State- (ISIS) linked terrorists on their own.
For its part, Mali has now decided to rely on the shady Russian Wagner Group for its anti-terrorism strategy in the wake of France’s exit, hardly a good strategy (not to mention a dangerous one: see section on Mali below). And Bamako seems to have elected to be vindictive about the French period, accusing – unrealistically – France of sending weapons to the jihadis.
What to make of all this? In truth, there is a role for the world’s militaries in counter terrorism but we would be naive to think that they are the only ones who can do this task – one I elaborate on extensively in my fourth book An End to the War on Terrorism. Yet, military’s make mistakes – the death of four schoolgirls in northeast Syria this week by a Turkish drone is a good example (Turkey claims it was targeting ‘terrorists’, i.e. the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) – and these are not only tragic in themselves but help raise support for terrorist groups.
If we are to continue to see a military option it is best that rather than take the form of an invasion/occupation it be ‘surgical’ in nature: the killing of AQ leader Ayman al Zawahiri in Kabul a few weeks back is a great option. Otherwise, we will be at ‘war with terrorism’ forever.
This week by the numbers
- Countries which experienced actual attacks: 6
- Victims (dead/wounded): 59/168
- Ideology of terrorists: majority Islamist extremist (jihadis)
- Single greatest attack: Al Shabaab siege of Mogadishu hotel (30 dead, 117 wounded)
Afghanistan
- A ‘huge explosion’ ripped through a mosque in Kabul on August 17, killing at least 21 people and injuring dozens. While no group claimed responsibility, Islamic State’s (ISIS) Khorasan Province (ISKP) would be a good bet.
- The Taliban killed a ‘rebel commander’ from the country’s minority Hazara Shiite community on August 17. Confusingly, Mawlana Mehdi had joined the Taliban before they took power – he was named their intelligence chief for Bamiyan province – but was ‘fired’ in April. The Hazaras have been persecuted by the Taliban for decades.
Chad
- The Chadian government stated on August 15 that Boko Haram (BH) had killed two of its soldiers in the Lake Chad region. Chadian authorities use “Boko Haram” as a general term for jihadists.
Egypt
- On August 15 the Egyptian military announced the death of Hamza Adel Muhammad Al-Zamili, better known by the Jihadi moniker Abu Kazem Al-Maqdisi, along with nine other Islamic State in the Sinai fighters. Three others were arrested.
India
- On August 16 Islamist militants shot dead a civilian and injured another, both members of minority Hindu community, in south Kashmir.
- Mumbai police reported on August 20 that they had received WhatsApp messages threatening a ’26/11-type’ attack, a reference to the November 26, 2008 attack in which 166 were killed and 300 wounded by jihadis. One message said that six people will execute the attack, while another claimed that preparations were being made to ‘blow up Mumbai’. The messages came from a Pakistani number.
Indonesia
- Australia is angry over the Indonesian government’s decision to reduce the 20-year sentence given to Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) bombmaker Umar Patek as part of Indonesia’s Independence Day celebrations. The Indonesian government claims that Patek, who engineered the 2002 Bali bombing that killed 202 people, among whom were 88 Australians, had been ‘deradicalised’ in prison.
Iran
- The Iranian Intelligence Ministry claimed on August 17 to have arrested “one of the oldest and most dangerous” international takfiri terrorists, a Syrian bent on attacking Iran.
Mali
- The last French troops left Mali on August 15, ending a nine-year anti-jihadi deployment. Many Malians feel that the departure will ‘mean nothing’ in the fight against terrorism, believing that Malians and the Wagner Group mercenaries can handle matters.
- The Support Group for Islam and Muslims (Groupe de Soutien a l’Islam e aux musulmans – GSIM, also known by its Arabic name Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal Muslimeen – JNIM) claimed on August 15 that its terrorists had killed four Russian mercenaries from the Wagner Group in a raid in central Mali on August 13.
Mozambique
- US expresses willingness to design, with the Mozambican government, a new strategy to fight against the terrorism that has been plaguing parts of the northern province of Cabo Delgado since October 2017.
Nigeria
- A BH commander, Aminu Duniya, and other terrorists were reportedly killed in a raid by the Nigerian military on August 15. Intelligence had revealed that the terrorists had assembled for an important meeting hosted by Duniya.
- On August 17 suspected Independent People of Biafra (IPOB) gunmen from the group’s Eastern Security Network (ESA) killed a Nigerian soldier during a shootout in Abia State.
Pakistan
- On August 20 the Pakistani military announced that two terrorists had been killed by security forces during an intelligence-based operation in the Mir Ali area of North Waziristan tribal district.
Palestine-Israel
- Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) claimed on August 15 that they had discovered a Hamas ‘attack tunnel’ with two branches along the northern border of the Gaza Strip. The tunnel was rendered inoperable after the military poured massive amounts of concrete into the two passages.
- Shin Bet announced on August 15 that ISIS-affiliated suspects arrested in July were believed to be planning terror attacks for the organisation and fight for it in Africa.
- On August 17 Israeli Defence Minister Benny Gantz announced the shut down of seven offices belonging to organisations in the West Bank which had been designated ‘terrorist’ in nature. These include Addameer, Al-Haq, Bisan Center, Defense for Children International – Palestine (DCI-P), the Union of Palestinian Women’s Committees (UPWC) and the Union Of Agricultural Work Committees (UAWC).
- The IDF announced on August 21 that it would formally charge Baasem Saadi, the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) West Bank leader, whose arrest at the beginning of the month sparked a round of fighting between Israel and the terror group in the Gaza Strip, .
Russia
- The top Russian official in occupied Crimea stated on August 17 that the Russian FSB security service had ‘neutralised’ a Hizb-ut-Tahrir terrorist cell in the territory, adding that the cell had been recruiting local Muslims and accusing it of carrying out terrorist activity.
- The daughter of a close ally of Russia’s President Vladimir Putin, Alexander Dugin who is an ultra-nationalist ideologue known as ‘Putin’s brain’, was killed in a suspected car bomb outside Moscow on August 20: Ukraine denied any involvement in the blast.
Somalia
- Al Shabaab (AS) took ownership of an attack on the Hayat hotel in Mogadishu on the evening of August 19. At one point the group claimed to be in control of the complex and said they “are shooting everyone“. Somali forces said they had ended the siege after 30 hours: at least a dozen, and possibly more, were killed as well as some if not all the terrorists (the final death toll reached 30, while 117 were injured). The attack is an awkward success for a new Somali president and a reminder that the group can almost act at whim.
- At least 20 people were wounded in Mogadishu on August 20 after five mortars landed in near the HQ for the Somali police. People from the same family were among the people who suffered a variety of wounds after a mortar hit their house during the night. No immediate claim of responsibility was available.
Thailand
- Explosions and fires ripped through at least 17 locations in southern Thailand on August 17 in what appeared to be multiple coordinated attacks injuring seven people. While no group claimed responsibility for the attacks, provinces in southern Thailand along the border with Malaysia have seen a decades-long, low-level insurgency, in which the Thai government has battled shadowy groups seeking independence for the predominantly Muslim provinces of Pattani, Yala, Narathiwat and parts of Songkhla (discussed at length in The Lesser Jihads). The following day Thai authorities said the attacks would not affect peace talks with the jihadis.
Turkey
- The Turkish military announced that it had ‘neutralised’ 22 PKK terrorists in northern Syria. The military uses the term ‘neutralise’ to refer to those killed, injured or arrested. Another senior PKK member was neutralised on August 21.
- The Turkish military tweeted on August 19 that it had ‘neutralised’ four PKK terrorists in Iraq’s north: “Wherever there are terrorists, the target is there”
United Kingdom
- A 15-year-old boy will go on trial accused of plotting a terror attack after allegedly researching the Isle of Wight Festival as a potential target. The boy had developed an interest in ISIS and was allegedly planning to attack someone he thought had insulted Islam.
United States
- A Pakistani doctor and former Mayo Clinic research coordinator pleaded guilty to terrorism two years after his arrest for telling paid FBI informants that he pledged his allegiance to ISIS and wanted to carry out lone wolf attacks in the US. Muhammad Masood was in the US on a work visa and made several statements to paid informants — whom he believed were members of ISIS — pledging his allegiance to the group and its leader and expressing his desire to travel to Syria to fight for ISIS and a desire to carry out lone wolf attacks.
