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How believable are claims of success against terrorism?

Governments make truly impressive claims in their counterterrorism campaigns, but can these numbers be trusted?

Episode 226 – Government counterterrorism claims need a second opinion

“Wars have typically been fought against proper nouns (Germany, say) for the good reason that proper nouns can surrender and promise not to do it again. Wars against common nouns (poverty, crime, drugs) have been less successful. Such opponents never give up. The war on terrorism, unfortunately, falls into the second category.” That quote from Grenville Byford two decades ago still reigns supreme. How are the world’s militaries doing on this front and can we believe claims of successful actions?

Military claims Sulu province, once considered the most dangerous in the country, is now clear from Abu Sayaf Group influence, the most violent of the Islamic separatist groups operating in southern Philippines

Turkey eliminates more than 900 terrorists in 7 months of ops https://www.dailysabah.com/politics/war-on-terror/turkiye-eliminates-more-than-900-terrorists-in-7-months-of-ops

Kenya’s military neutralizes over 60 Al-Shabaab fighters – minister (garoweonline.com)

Somali army claims it has killed another 160 Al Shabaab terrorists last week

Since the death of Boko Haram leader Abubakar Shekau in 2021, over 70,000 people have left the group

Turning away from terrorism: Lessons from Lake Chad Basin

By Phil Gurski

Phil Gurski is the President and CEO of Borealis Threat and Risk Consulting Ltd. Phil is a 32-year veteran of CSE and CSIS and the author of six books on terrorism.

By Phil Gurski

Phil Gurski is the President and CEO of Borealis Threat and Risk Consulting Ltd. Phil is a 32-year veteran of CSE and CSIS and the author of six books on terrorism.