We often read or listen to ‘experts’ tell us with utter confidence that such-and-such is going to happen to us in the days ahead. And yet, there are few if any studies that measure the accuracy of such predictions. If it turns out that many prognoses fall far from the mark are these people really ‘experts’? Borealis issues the challenge for a serious look at the nature and reliability of expertise in the national security world.
Phil Gurski is the President and CEO of Borealis Threat and Risk Consulting Ltd., a 32-year veteran of CSE and CSIS and the author of six books on terrorism.